Sunday, February 25, 2007
Nov. 4: Draft Day '08!
I've been saying this for a while now, so I might just as well put it in writing:1 comments
Gore vs. Leiberman, 2008.
The presidential race in 2008 will be decided by two teams furiously working to draft their respective faves for the nominations. One movement is growing outside-in with swelling support; the other is growing inside-out and is entirely self-generated.
But each could work. Here how:
DEMOCRATS:
This has already begun. It's clear from the outset that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are evenly matched, and have begun an epic struggle that should result in neither gaining a clearcut advantage. We can safely assume that (world events notwithstanding) they will gain equal amounts of loyalty, money and primary votes in the Democratic universe. Also, that all the air for other candidates will successfully be sucked out of the room. (Bye, Gov. Tom! Sen. Visa (D-DE)? I don't think so...) An excellent case can be made that we go to the convention with neither Clinton nor Obama having a clear advantage, and that after close to two years of wrangling, arm-twisting and vicious sniping, there will be no desire whatsoever to barter.
If, in fact, Al Gore wins the Oscar tonight, and/or the Nobel later, the screaming will intensify for him to enter the race. If he does, he's nuts. Who in their right mind would piss away an enviable position and come into a marathon with strong leaders at the 4-mile mark when you can happily jump in at the 25-mile marker and literally run away with it all by acclimation?
Not Al, we say. Again, an excellent case can be made to let HC & BO bash their brains in throughout '07 and early '08. Let them (and us) come to the convention battered, bruised and exhausted, and needing a way out.
Al just continues to do what he's already been doing—being the sage from on high. Spending his days watching his Google stock, speaking wisely, then demurring when asked the daily, obligatory "Are you running?" question. Meanwhile, those who only have his best interests at heart begin the negotiating that's necessary with all the air-starved candidates for their support, IF he were to allow himself to be subject to a draft at or before the convention.
And, GOSH, if it's THAT important to everybody that he be the nominee in '08, then, "well, someone's gonna have to do it, right? So, OK! Let's go do it!"
Of course, Hillary would never take the VP slot, so she'll start angling to replace Harry Reid as Majority Leader.
We can assume that, at that point, Barack would still be open to the visibility the 2nd slot would offer, and we may have a Gore-Obama 'o8 ticket. Affectionately referred to by the masses as: "GORBAMA!" But don't count out Gore-Edwards '08 or Gore-Richardson '08, though they're more unwieldy verbally. That'll be decided by how the negotiations go this year.
This idea actually has been getting a decent amount of play, so I'm not unique with this call. I'm just handicapping it to play out this way.
Meanwhile...
REPUBLICANS:
Here's the one that I don't see anyone addressing, which I find very odd. Seems perfectly logical to me. Here goes...
The GOP field at this point is a circular firing squad of poor souls with absolutely no chance of being elected president. They also have a fallow farm system with no national stars on the horizon. This is proven by the almost wall-to-wall coverage of HC/OB.
Duncan Hunter and Sam Brownback get good marks among the Right, but this is president we're talking about here, not some county commish slot. That leaves the Big 3: Mitt Romney, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani.
Poor Mitt. He makes the podium look fluid. I've rarely seen anyone stiffer—other than George Pataki maybe—enter the fray. Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Nice guy; charisma-challenged. Unfortunately also for Mitt, he's this year's Hubert H. Humphrey. In 1972's California epic primary battle between Humphrey and George McGovern, we sat and watched HHH give TWELVE DIFFERENT views in front of TWELVE DIFFERENT groups on that year's hot-button issue—busing. We were stunned; we never thought there WERE that many sides to a cube. The hairs were split VERY thinly, yes, but twelve there were. Mitt is quickly gaining a reputation of having as many views on issues as there are people asking him. And, as with HHH, all that does is show people you stand nowhere on anything. Not good leadership fodder.
Then, we have the Desperate Twins.
John McCain has muddied the water faster than I thought a human being capable of. Lord! He's pissed EVERYBODY off! From "Straight Shooter" to "Mean, nasty, angry guy" in just a couple of quick years! From the guy you want to go have a beer with to "Ewwwwww! Do I HAVE to go see Grandpa??!! He's so mean, and sooo icky!" Now, for everyone from Kos to Cheney, he's simply a royal pain in the ass. Not the way to build a groundswell. Oh, and that "surge" that's about to blow up in our national faces? Yep, McCain's idea. What a loser.
Rudy. "Aw, Rudy, you're killin' me!"
Perhaps the meanest, nastiest person on the face of the earth. Close to universally loathed by the very people who know him best: New Yorkers who were here during his terms as mayor. 9/11 was actually primary day here. In NYC, we were happily going to the polls to pick Rudy's successor. The election was postponed. In the weeks following the attacks, after seeing what great press he was getting, Rudy tried to get the city to overturn the term limit laws he fought so hard for, in order to oust his enemies and pack the City Council with his friends. NYers said a resounding "NO! Take your clippings and leave!" I actually admit to still having a Rudy voodoo doll, left over from his days as mayor. Played every segment of NYC off against every other segment. Sold the city off to the richest of the very rich. Destroyed the middle class in the city, utterly. Hated every idea he couldn't take full credit for. He would screw around WHILE preaching to you on how you were immoral and your life was badly handled. Why so many would lie across his desk for this man is anybody's guess. He's an amoral, vengeful, egomaniacal prig, not a Christian fundamentalist. To many, that's farrrrrr worse. Rev. James Dobson of Focus on the Family is Bill Clinton next to Rudy. Not exactly presidential timber here. Rudy can be safely assumed to make the far right vomit when his "America's Mayor" tag soon wears off, and they actually look at him. Even Pataki sounded cogent in the couple of weeks after the attacks, and George is NOBODY'S idea of a president. Plus, on the other end, the left would go to any legal means to stop Rudy if he got that far. He is slime incarnate.
And remember, this is the man who fired Bill Bratton as police commissioner because Bratton took too much credit for a job well done, and who was much happier with the useless dirty cop, Bernard Kerik.
Case closed.
Hmmmmm...
Where does that leave us, then? Whoever will the GOP be able to find who has a national standing, is insanely hawkish on Iraq, gets fawning media coverage whenever he wants it, enjoys public displays of affection with the Lame-Duck Dictator, is REALLY pissed off at the Democrats and wants to have ALL the attention for himself? Hmmm...
"Well, Hidey-Ho-o-o-o, boys and girls!" It's Mr. Hankey, himself: JOEMENTUM!
Sen. Joe Lieberman (D for a while-CT)
Lieberman-Somebody '08!!
Because in your heart, you hate America!
Yes, boys and girls, that's what all this postering and posing ol' Joe's been doing since Ned Lamont started mounting a serious threat to Joe's job in DC. Will he? Won't he? Oh, he's being sooo cute. Gosh, whatever will he decide? Who WILL he caucus with? Are you a Good Democrat, Joe?
What, you MIGHT switch parties? Right.
Folks..., this is a lock. Joe hates everything that Democrats are, by this point. His poor feelings are so hurt, and mixing that with his astonishing ambition, he's maneuvering to set up a GOP draft in 2008. He'll soak the media for as long as he can. Then, he'll switch just in the time necessary to file papers before the GOP convention. Remember how he seemed to know all the myriad ins and outs of filing as an Independent in CT? Long before any of the rest of us has any hint that this was an option? Joe does his homework. He can probably tell you all he has to about running as a Republican in 'o8. How he needs to set up his mechanism, fundraising, logistics, etc.
But, how could this be, you ask?
Simple. He knows he's their answer. And he knows they're his. But, like his almost-boss, Gore, the idea is to play it cagey, and let the announced candidates kill each other off. The GOP would have to turn to SOMEBODY, and he's already shown he can pull enough Republican votes to win in a blue state.
Why doesn't he just switch now?
To avoid the primaries. Why get dragged into someone else's fight? Also, he'd get killed if he merely switched parties, and threw the Senate to the GOP. It's bad enough that Democrats hate him, he doesn't want the entire country on his ass. However, by playing the Coy Card, he keeps everybody guessing, thereby keeping CNN and FOX pinned down outside his office door.
He also must figure that he can paint anyone the Dems throw out as a far-left, out-of-touch, dangerous dreamer. Hill? Bring her on! He'll find that live Hillary nerve in the heart of the far right, and just keep poking it until she gets stalkers. He'll be the "skilled, experienced guy" against the "paperweight/he'll get us all killed" Obama. Perfect. As dirty as Joe needs to go, Joe goes.
Depending on how that other draft goes, though. The AFL is definitely looking at who the NFL picks.
The one fly in Joe's unctuous ointment, is Al. Al Gore has never engendered the bitter mania Hillary has; he's more experienced than even Joe, so the Obama tactic won't work on Al. Al's walked every necessary walk.
Yes, Al is Joe's nightmare. You figure Joe blames Al for costing him the VP in 2000, and thereby the White House in 2008. It was all right there! Waiting for Joementum! Oh well.
It would be a mercilessly ugly campaign, with Gore finally putting Joe out of our political misery.
Here's how I'm handicapping the next two years.
Democrat: Al Gore
vs.
Republican: Joe Lieberman
Winner: Al Gore '08.
That's my story and I'm sticking by it.
posted by Gotham 2:51 PM
1 Comments:
Great post. I just have this fear that the truth about what an asshole Rudy is will never get out there.
By 
, at
February 25, 2007 7:39 PM
