Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Looking At The Smaller Numbers
As of today, October 21, 2008, Polling Report.com is showing intriguing numbers for the 2008 Congressional races.0 comments
Bear with me—disclosure: we spent many years here working closely with top pollster Louis Harris on The Harris Poll—as we look at some of these numbers.For those unfamiliar with polls, the term "registered voters" is more vague than "likely voters," since a tighter screen is normally used in order to get respondents to declare themselves. Registered can mean simply having performed a clerical task sometime back. Likely is either a view of a person's history of voting in past elections or of their declaration of intent to vote in the upcoming election. So, likely voter (LV) screens receive closer scrutiny.
Recent tracking polls for the generic race for Congress have some interesting quandries.
In the 3-day rolling average polls released by Research 2000 for Daily Kos, what immediately jumps out is the Unsure/Not Sure (NS) number. You see the immediate impact of the fiscal debacle. And just whom America blames.
While we're using the Research 2000 numbers for this, know that they're pretty much in line with everyone else's results.
For the early part of September, the Dems's numbers were roughly 45% to 50% and the GOPers were floating in the 39 to 41 range, with a sizable low-teens NS number. Things were static. It was decidedly a Democratic year, but no one was pulling away, and many folks were agonizing over their choice. It could tighten up, or the Dem lead could hold or grow.
Likely Voters:
DATE / Democrat/Republican/Not Sure
9/13/08 47 41 12
9/12/08 46 40 14
9/11/08 47 41 12
9/10/08 47 40 13
Then, Wall St. tanked. For a couple of days, the Dems gained as they took the media forefront and most people attribute financial types with Republicans. The Dems rose a couple of points to 49% to 50% of the total, while GOPers stayed in the low 40s. The NS numbers dropped to 8 or 9, with folks moving to the Dems.
But an interesting shift has occurred. Folks have moved again. But away from the GOP. The odd thing in this crisis has been the absence of a "Pox on all your houses" response on the part of voters. Dem numbers have not moved at all, really, they are still sitting in the 48 to 50 range. They're not being affected by this shift; it's the GOP that's bearing the brunt. All the action has come in the NS numbers. Over these two months, we've seen NS numbers swing from the low teens, down to single digits, up to between 16 and 20, and settling now into the mid-teen range, leaving the GOP wallowing in the mid-30s. You can almost see Americans weighing everything carefully; these events have certainly gotten their attention.
DATE / Democrat/Republican/Not Sure
10/19/08 48 35 17
10/18/08 50 35 15
10/17/08 50 36 14
This shift has all come out of the GOP numbers. The GOP has spent every day since Sept. 26 below 40%. During this crisis, it's GOP support that has wavered, while Dem support has held steady. It can be assumed that most Republican voters are weighing exactly the role their favorite has played in this national mess. Should they hold their Republican Representative accountable and let the Dems clean up the mess, or give the Republican a ride this time?
Going forward, the interesting thing becomes, "Just what will that upwards to 20% of the electorate do in their districts on Nov. 4?"
They could go in any of three directions. They could "come home" to the GOP, hold their noses and vote. In that case, the GOP would seize or retain many House seats, cutting deeply into Dem projected gains.
Or, so fed up they could spit, many may hold their noses more tightly and vote for the Dem this time.
Or, they could simply choose not to vote for Congress this time, denying breath to the GOP campaign there.
Either of the bottom two leads to major Dem pickup numbers. The first scenario makes it a battle.
Much of this, of course, rests with how angry voters still are on the 4th, how much John McCain is tied to the pain caused by George W. Bush, and how dismal a campaign McCain and Sarah Palin continue to run, and how clear a case Barack Obama can make for his plan and his fitness to handle a crisis. This is an election where the top of the ticket will bear enormous pressure and influence on the lower parts of the ballot. There seems no great passion for splitting tickets this year.
Which brings us to the other thing that's interesting today.
Most polls show that the Dems have held a 5 to 10 point lead in generic Dem/GOP races for months. They have also shown consistently that folks would like to see Congress in the hands of the Dems, again generically.
Then we get to the fun part.
It's good to see that after all this time has passed, that something we tracked closely in the '70s-'90s at Harris still holds sway.
People like their Congressman; it's everyone else's that has to go!
Gallup looked at it in July:
Does this respondent's Congressperson deserve re-election? Then, how about the rest of Congress?
This historically has produced a giant Yes for theirs, and a resounding NO for everyone else's.
Let's see what it shows this year:
In Feb.: Theirs: Yes, 62-27; Others: 38-52.
In July: Theirs: Yes, 58-30; Others: 34-54.
Like clockwork.
However, you can see an anger beginning to build against Congress, as their guy dropped seven points in five months, while "those other" House members dropped six. They still are solidly behind their Representative, but they're having doubts. That's what makes the daily numbers above so fascinating for political wonks.
So, keep an eye on Wall St. and the economy, and fasten your seat belts, 'cause we're in for a bumpy ride.
posted by Gotham 2:00 PM
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