Tuesday, February 14, 2006
Putting Numbers In Context
More poll numbers.0 comments
These from Republican-friendly Rassmussen Reports:
The Rasmussen Consumer Index inched up almost one point on Tuesday to 116.9. The Index, which measures the economic confidence of American consumers on a daily basis, is within half a point of its 2006 high.
Wow, sounds good.
OK, a little context. The benchmark number is 100, set as of a month after September 11, 2001. Their own chart shows that, instead of reflecting Rasmussen's very encouraging statement in the paragraph above, the consumer confidence of Americans has been on an emotional roller coaster this last year. It's been bouncing up and down between 110 (3 months ago) and 117 (a month ago, and a year ago).
So, in Wall Street parlance, the public's emotions have been trading up and down within an established range. But, we're still down from where we were a year ago. And showing a great deal of volatility.
Remember, three months ago (the end of November), Americans saw themselves only 10 pts. better off than in the horrible days after 9/11. Now, THAT'S faith for you. Plus, this wonderful 2006 high of 117 that Rasmussen is touting is still FOUR FULL POINTS BELOW the highs of any of our last four, economically horriffic years. And a full TEN POINTS BELOW the best of the last five years, 2004's 127.
So there's no foundation for any celebration here. Remember, only 29% of Americans say the economy is getting better; a full 54% say it's getting worse.
Also, the Investor Index is basically unchanged from yesterday. That's up from the lows of a few months ago, but well down from the highs set in 2004.
Again, these indicators clearly show a flat economy going sideways, fast.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of American adults approve of the way George W. Bush is performing his role as President.
48% approve; 51% disapprove. Sounds close. But again, please, some context.
The heaviest number here is buried in the 4-pt scale spread of the results. The strongest number is the bottom point: Strongly Disapprove. Equal numbers for Strongly or Somewhat Approve (24% ea.). So Bush's support is fairly tepid. And swayable.
But a full 36% Strongly Disapprove of the Bush's performance. Not many (15%) are wishy-washy about his doing a poor job.
Americans either kinda, sorta think Bush is doing an OK job, or they think he's doing a rotten job. There's not much in-between.
posted by Gotham 4:51 PM
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