Tuesday, August 24, 2004
Getting the Numbers Wrong at USA TODAY
The press is so enamored of The Horse Race, that they miss what is actually going on (i.e., they get it wrong).0 comments
So, a little "Context" Music, Maestro, please!
Now here is the headline that USA TODAY is going with today.
USATODAY: Poll: Bush still ahead of Kerry in Arizona
You look at that and think, gee, George W. Bush still is holding his support, especially in his conservative states; that he is successfully fending off John Kerry's challenge.
Well, I'm sorry, but there is a major problem with that headline.
Mostly that—while true (at this point)—it's just not accurate.
Let me explain.
First, it is NOT a poll of the voters of Arizona. It clearly is a poll of Maricopa County, which includes Phoenix and, yes, historically represents 60% of the voter turnout in the state.
I can see the temptation to extrapolate here, but calling a county, "the state," is extrapolating waaaay too much to make this hold water as a case. And the good folks at the Behavior Research Center in Phoenix must be incredibly embarrassed at this colossal misrepresentation of their work.
Next, the results do indeed show Bush in the lead over Kerry [again, just in Maricopa County]. No big shock here, since Maricopa is heavily Republican, with the outlying counties tending more Democratic. So, normally, there's no story there.
But here is the actual story:
Bush has seen his sizeable lead in this normally "safe" county drop from 12% to 5% in the last month!
That's right, folks, you read it right. A 7-point swing to Kerry IN ONE MONTH in heavily Republican territory!
USA TODAY: Kerry causes major damage to Bush in "safe" red state
There is your real story, boys and girls.
Don't believe me? Here, you can read the data as well as I can.
Also, while you're in BRC's site, be sure to check out the polls from July which show how much chaos Farenheit 9/11 is causing for Bush among the Independents and Republicans of Arizona (yes, this one is statewide), and how Arizona Independents tend to be former Republicans, not former Democrats.
"More Maalox for Mr. Rove, please..."
posted by Gotham 1:14 PM
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