Tuesday, August 03, 2004
Dead-Cat Bounce for Bush?
The GOP is currently obsessed with bounces.0 comments
So it's not too early for them to be terrified about what little bounce George W. Bush is facing, as he comes out of his convention.
Returning to today's NYTimes polling story, a couple of points arise.
For good or for ill, the American people already feel they have an firm idea of just who George W. Bush really is. Like him or hate him, they "know" him.
This limits the amount of convincing spin allowable in his presentation. It's already been established. As the stock market enjoys saying, "this news has already been priced in."
The newschannels and papers have been saying for months that Americans don't "know" John Kerry.
Which is why Karl Rove has been trying mightily to tell them. With mixed results, as we're now seeing.
This gives the Kerry campaign great lattitude in how they can present their candidate—since everything they say gets met with an "Oh, I didn't know that about him" response from around the country.
So, for all the harsh orchestration of the Democratic convention in Boston last week, a great deal was actually accomplished.
Fast forward to late August in New York City—where the GOP will be as welcome as U.S. air bases in Mecca.
The American public won't see the bulk of what is actually accomplished during that week, since the real action won't be on the floor but rather at the luxurious parties thrown by and for the corporati. That's where all the deals will be made.
The convention delegates will basically have nothing much to do other than pray mightily that Tom Ridge's terror alert was, in fact, a hoax, so that they don't get blown to kingdom come while trying to have a good time in the Big City. What time is left over after praying for their very lives will be spent cheering boring speeches, all repeating that John Kerry is Satan; wearing funny hats; gettting the clap from a hooker; getting spat upon and/or robbed by angry NYers; and having obscenities screamed at them by rioting activists.
What fun!
The GOP knows how to take care of their core support, boy.
The rest of the American people will be spared most of that; seeing only spot coverage of the "Kerry/Satan" stuff, and a beaming and oh-so-surprised George happily thanking the delegates who've survived the week's experience for his nomination.
Yawn.
Nowhere in all that will there be any ability to re-define Bush; to reach out in any meaningful way to the "Persuadables," who are beginning a slow but steady move to Kerry.
Team Rove has labored 24/7/365 for many years to create the George W. we all now know.
Like him or hate him, what you see in George W. is what you get. Don't expect any "The New Nixon" type of makeover. It's just too late for that.
So, if, in fact, the vast majority of Americans have already set their choices in granite; if the undecided vote is starting to slide slowly to Kerry; if some moderate Republican support is actually starting to ebb from Bush; and if the core Democratic base is simply a larger number than the core Republican base to begin with, where exactly does Bush get his bounce?
As passionately as the GOP has climbed all over this "bounce issue," it's going to bite them rather badly when there's NO bounce for Feckless Leader.
How does the GOP avoid hearing, "Thud"?
In this New World Order of "Perception Is King," that's going to look and sound very, very bad.
How do you cure Bush's "Dead-Cat Bounce"?
Might it be possible that Bush family uber-fixer James L. Baker is currently in the Middle East, trying to negotiate a terror attack for convention week, thereby giving Bush and the GOP something to rally around?
Nah....that's too paranoid, even for me.
That's...
That's...
Hmmmm...
posted by Gotham 3:01 PM
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