Wednesday, June 09, 2004
Kerry Leads Slightly
Wow.0 comments
The numbers from this weekend's Gallup Poll are out, and they're stunning.
Now, repeat after me:
"Polls are only a snapshot of that moment!!"
[Full Disclosure: I spent close to twenty years employed by Louis Harris and The Harris Poll here in New York. For much of that time I was responsible for protecting the accuracy of the data we gathered, so I do have a working knowledge of political polls. I also have the highest regard for the work of the Gallup people—for most of those twenty-some years, our fiercest competitor.]
OK, now let's move on.
Kerry With Slight Lead in Presidential Race
Sen. John Kerry has slightly opened his lead over President George W. Bush to 5 points.
This, over a weekend where both the respectful and the blood-and-guts remembrances of WWII were in full swing, and as the tsunami coverage of the death of Bush's spiritual mentor and Republican deity, Ronald Reagan, broke over the weekend's news cycles.
You would have been safe in assuming that all of that would have given Bush quite a sizeable emotional boost in the polls.
Au contraire, mes amis.
Instead of getting kudos and pats on the back for being "just like the Gipper," Bush stands more in jeopardy of hearing, "...and you're no Ronald Reagan!" from friends and (many) foes, alike.
Poor, George.
The most telling quote from Gallup, concerning the always-coveted "Likely voters":
These results suggest that the race remains close, though Kerry appears to have a slight edge at this time. This is, in fact, the largest lead Kerry has had over Bush among likely voters since early March.
Battleground States
Among registered voters, Kerry leads Bush by 20 points in the blue states (won by former Vice President Al Gore in 2000 by a margin of more than 5 percentage points), and trails Bush by just 4 points in the red states (won by Bush in 2000 by a margin of more than 5 percentage points). In the purple states (those won by either Gore or Bush by margins of 5 points or less), Kerry leads by 5 points, 49% to 44%.
Stunning.
The main points here:
In their respective core strength areas, Kerry's support stands more solidly than Bush's. And Kerry's seemingly Quixotic tactic of taking the fight right to Bush's states is also paying off handsomely—to this point.
And in the all-important toss-up states, where Bush has already spent close to half of every cent they've raised in running ads that trash Kerry for everything short of and including the last Ice Age, all Karl Rove has to look at are Bush numbers that are smaller than Kerry's, no matter how many times he looks at them. And no matter what great-sounding news breaks over Fox News.
Now remember, it's only a snapshot, and can change dramatically tomorrow.
Ahhhh, yes. OK, I know.
But [sigh] what a lovely photo it is.
posted by Gotham 3:35 PM
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