Monday, March 29, 2004
Gazing into the Crystal Ball Meth
Ever notice how Economists' Forecasts pan out as well as the late Jeanne Dixon's "What Does the New Year Hold for YOU?" forecasts used to?0 comments
These are the same people, remember, who brought you the longest-running soap opera of the last decade:
"Is THIS the Market Bottom!?"
They really had a firm handle on that old dot-com burp, boy, predicting every month that THAT was the market bottom and the end of the decline, and the markets would soon be righting themselves. Of course, they said that every month for 36-odd months, figuring they've GOT to be right sooner or later. Meanwhile, the American investor's portfolio looked increasingly like a "Survivor" beach set after a typhoon.
USATODAY.com: Economists see 'booming economy'
I'm happy for them.
But, it's kinda like Haley Ormont's seeing "dead people," y'know?
It's not real.
So, let's go to the tape!
Experts' economic forecasts
A thought:
Have you ever noticed that Jobs Reports forecasters are always employed?
There never seems to be any unemployed economist Tom Smith forecast credits very often, or many "Sheila Jones, a former Credit Suisse economic analyst and current Wal-Mart cashier, says ..." -type bylines or expert quotes, usually.
The point, here, is that it's no real skin off their tushes if they are (and they generally always are) wrong.
It's just, "Oops, our bad. Oh well. Who's turn to buy dinner?"
As for the rest of us:
"Alpo for all my friends!"
posted by Gotham 12:18 PM
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