Sunday, February 08, 2004
For the Democrats, An Issue on a Platter
Public Shows Doubts on Medicare Law0 comments
President George W. Bush spent two and a half years attempting to expunge from the White House (and, indeed, all government) any and all traces that Bill Clinton was actually ever president.
Recently, however, the University of Pennsylvania's National Annenberg Election Survey ("NAESO4") reports that Bush's attempt to actually grab a page out of the Clinton playbook, and take away a Democratic issue (prescription drugs) and make it his own, doesn't seem to be working quite as planned, nor going as smoothly as this type of thing used to go for Clinton.
The NAESO4 found the American public of two basic minds on the issue of the Medicare Bill Bush just signed on December 8. Unfortunately for Bush, it seems to break down to whether someone a) knows much about the legislation, or b) doesn't know much about the legislation.
Ouch.
It would seem that voter education would be at the top ot the Democratic to-do list for 2004.
The NAES04 first asked each person surveyed for a basic Favor/Oppose vote on the legislation. Then, it followed that person's vote with the core argument from the opposite choice. The favor folks received an "Oppose" follow-up argument, and those who originally opposed received the core argument from the "Favor" camp. Then they were all asked to vote again.
While the overwhelming majority of Americans polled first approved the new bill, as soon as they heard a bit more about it, they pancaked in a heartbeat.
So, the important overall finding here is that most Americans were not paying all that much attention during the yowling debate, the intra-party strong-arming and bribing of Republican Congressmen that it took to pass it, or Bush's signing of the final bill. But, if pushed now, and made to be aware of what is involved in the new law and how it affects them, we see Americans taking a decided step backwards.
Here are some of the breakdowns of what the NAES04 found:
1,615 people were polled at the end of December 2003. The margin of error was +/- 2 points.
Overall Favor/Oppose (%):
Favor: 63 Oppose: 25 Don't Know: 12
Next, the 88% who had Favored or Opposed were given countering arguments. And here's how they ended up:
Favor: 22 Oppose: 18 Don't Know: (48 + 12 original DKs) = 60
Over 65+:
Favor: 46 Oppose: 40 Don't Know: 14
then:
Favor: 16 Oppose: 26 Don't Know: (44 + 14 original DKs) = 58
Even the 18-to-29s, who mostly have been ceded to Bush, shifted:
Favor: 73 Oppose: 14 Don't Know: 13
then:
Favor: 21 Oppose: 9 Don't Know: (57 + 13 original DKs) = 70
While a major drop in Democratic support of 46 points is not news, seeing the resulting Republican numbers plummet is:
Favor: 73 Oppose: 18 Don't Know: 9
then:
Favor: 33 Oppose: 13 Don't Know: (45 + 9 original DKs) = 54
So, to Terry McAulliffe, the Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, and the rest of the Democratic pack:
Here is an election issue package offered to you on a silver platter, complete with champagne. Let's see where you go with it.
posted by Gotham 12:38 PM
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