Wednesday, December 17, 2003
More Fuzzy Poll Math
NYT: Bush's Approval Ratings Climb in Days After Hussein's Capture0 comments
Another "bump-ette" story.
[As way of a disclaimer, I must say that I spent 18 years working for one of the major polling organizations. Many of those years were spent as the division head responsible for all of the company's data collection. Basically, from questionnaire creation review to interviewing to final presentation, it was my job to make sure our operation produced the correct numbers. Then, the gentleman whose name was on the door told the world what the numbers meant. —EJD]
Here is the main graph from the link above:
But even in the glow of Mr. Hussein's capture, Americans worry that United States forces will be mired in Iraq for years, are concerned that the attacks on American troops will continue and say that President Bush has no plan to extricate the United States from Iraq, the poll found. And 60 percent of Americans said the United States was as vulnerable to a terrorist attack as it was before Mr. Hussein was pulled from a hole in Ad Dwar.
As I said yesterday, you expect a great deal of volitility around an event such as this. My point, though, is that with an event of this importance for the administration, you'd just expect the bump to be more dramatic.
Again, from The New York Times on volitility:
Times/CBS News polls spanned the days before and after Mr. Hussein's capture, offering a vivid demonstration of the extent to which public opinion can shift in reaction to a momentous event. From Saturday night to Sunday night, Americans' view of the success of the war soared, as did their opinion about whether the nation is on the right track and their approval of Mr. Bush.
Be aware, most of all, that any poll is merely a snapshot of THAT DAY. In and of itself, it is not a sign of any movement. You need to look at the numbers from the results of that question over a period of time to weed out spikes and to see what the real movement is—the same way stock analysts look beyond today's market numbers to the YTD, 1-yr., and 3-yr. results to get a clearer picture.
A qualified pollster will tell you that any swing in the numbers is only as good as the next day's headlines.
Even with this swing, you can see the confusion of the American populace.
Nearly half the respondents said that they now believed that the United States, with the capturing of Mr. Hussein, had won the war.
But:
A majority said that the war was not over yet and that they expected troops to stay in place for years, rather than months.
And:
Most of those polled said they believed that Mr. Hussein had orchestrated the attacks on American soldiers, but a majority also expected those attacks to continue.
Much of the American populace currently has no idea what to make out of all of this. Too many of them are still trying to figure out how they are going to scrape together the mortgage payment, and pay for Christmas.
And there's actual bad news in this "bump-ette" for George W. Bush:
There was also clear public disapproval about some ways that Mr. Bush has responded to the war at home. For example, two-thirds of Americans, including most Republicans, said they disagreed with the White House policy of prohibiting news photographers from ceremonies where the coffins of Americans troops are brought home.
The White House says that the policy is intended to protect the privacy of the families of the deceased; Democrats and some critics of the White House say it is intended to avoid the publication of emotionally charged photographs that might harden opposition to the war.
And in good news for Dr. Howard Dean:
Democratic presidential candidates have been stepping up their attacks on Mr. Bush's policies on terrorism and Iraq, in the face of some criticism by Republicans who suggest that such attacks are improper at a time of war. But a clear majority of respondents, 64 percent, said such criticism was appropriate.
So, stay tuned. It's only going to change.
Pop Quiz:
When's the last time that your representative in Congress,
or your Senator represented YOUR interests?
Get Angry! Have your say. Write your elected officials now!
Here's the Realtime Iraq Invasion Cost Clock!
posted by Gotham 12:55 PM
0 Comments:
