Tuesday, December 16, 2003
More Fuzzy Math from the Right
This from today's The Wall Street Journal:0 comments
Bush reaped a quick political benefit from Hussein's capture as a new poll showed increased approval of the president's leadership and the nation's direction overall.
Now, you fully expect these numbers to be highly volatile, with huge initial jumps, as this story has been the emotional core of the president's term in office.
This from MSNBC First Read's Mark Murray and Huma Zaidi, quoting from the Journal's story:
which has numbers from both the Saturday before Saddam's capture and the Sunday after it. The Wall Street Journal's Harwood and Schlesinger write: "Mr. Bush's job-approval rating bumped up to 58% after Mr. Hussein was taken into custody from 52% [the Saturday] before. At the same time, some 76% of Americans interviewed after the capture said the U.S. is likely to succeed in Iraq, up from 72% before the weekend's events."
"The results suggested that the end of Mr. Hussein's eight months on the run could also have policy ramifications by strengthening public support for pushing ahead with Iraq's reconstruction. In the wake of the capture, Americans said by a 53%-to-37% margin that removing Mr. Hussein from power was worth the human and financial costs; in November, a 46% plurality said it wasn't worth those costs."
"Perhaps more significant for Mr. Bush's re-election prospects, Americans said by a 62%-to-32% majority Sunday that the war in Iraq has made the U.S. more secure -- contrary to Mr. Dean's assertions -- up from a 52%-to-43% margin in September. And though Democrats have argued that the quest for Mr. Hussein represents a diversion from the global war on terrorism, 57% said his capture will make that broader war easier to win."
They're joking.
There must be a misprint.
The singular event of the administration of George W. Bush finally falls squarely in his lap and all he can get out of this is a 7 - 8 point bump?
This man is in serious trouble.
Forget the chest-pounding nonsense from the Journal. This is a BIG negative for Bush's re-election campaign.
The hallmark effort of his last two years in office has gained him a job approval bump of six points? This has been his rallying cry, for Pete's sake. His raison d'etre. And all it gets him is six points? A decent farm bill, with moderate-to-heavy spin could have netted him five.
He could only pick up four points on "the U.S. is likely to succeed in Iraq" question.
And this I find most telling; the best he could do on the most emotionally charged question (the spilling of American blood) was to pick up seven points:
In the wake of the capture, Americans said by a 53%-to-37% margin that removing Mr. Hussein from power was worth the human and financial costs; in November, a 46% plurality said it wasn't worth those costs."
This is the type of signature, linchpin event that must have all these numbers bouncing in double-digits. Even if the bumps don't hold or last very long at all. The initial bounce needs to be mighty to reward the emotional, political, military and financial investment this president has made in toppling and capturing this despot.
The lack of emotionality on the part of the American people after worldwide wall-to-wall coverage for two days means that The Journal and the rest of the Right can tart this pig up any way they want to, but these remain bad numbers for the administration.
And do the Democrats understand this? Of course not.
This may just be a major "Beltway Story" after all. There's this (again, from First Read):
On Day Three of the Saddam-is-now-behind-bars story, Kerry gives a national security speech in Iowa, while Lieberman does the same in New Hampshire. Dean, meanwhile, campaigns in Arizona, and Gephardt fundraises in Pennsylvania and Florida.
As we and the rest of the press continue to play up the Saddam news, however, we'd like to mention this anecdote: Perhaps it's a geographical quirk of voters in the heartland, away from the coasts, or more specifically in economically hurting Ohio, but one of us watched a Peter Hart-conducted focus group of Democrat and Democrat-leaning independent voters from Ohio and Michigan last night who barely mentioned Hussein or the war against terror. They spent the bulk of two hours voicing their concerns about jobs and having enough money to get by and pay for education and health care.
Across America you hear:
Mel: "Hey, honey, this says they got that Iraq guy!"
Alice: "That's nice, dear. Any word in there on jobs, at all?"
Mel: "Not that I see."
Alice: "Oh. ok. Are you picking the kids up after practice, or am I?"
Pop Quiz:
When's the last time that your representative in Congress,
or your Senator represented YOUR interests?
Get Angry! Have your say. Write your elected officials now!
Here's the Realtime Iraq Invasion Cost Clock!
posted by Gotham 11:50 AM
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