Gotham Notes...

Saturday, November 15, 2003


Bush's Fuzzy Math Returns


For George W. Bush, "fuzzy math" means "election-year math."

I see...

Wal-Mart misses profit estimate; shares drop

Help me understand something here, if you would.

Wal-Mart hires low-cost firms which use a small army of illigal immigrants at minimum wage to clean their thousands of stores. They pay their store employees next to nothing, then reportedly lock the doors so workers are forced to work unpaid overtime.

And they can't make money!

Shares of Wal-Mart Stores fell nearly 5 percent Thursday and acted as a drag on the retail sector after the retailer reported a profit that was short of Wall Street expectations and said consumers are still living paycheck to paycheck.

The shares finished the session at $55.52, down $2.44 after dropping to $55.40 earlier in the session.

So, this is your mighty BUSH BOOM (recent New York Post headline) in action, folks.

Over the course of the quarter, Wal-Mart executives said on the call, sales growth slowed in September from August's robust pace and slowed again in October from September. The company blamed unseasonably warm weather.

"I don't think consumer spending is slowing," [Wal-Mart President Lee] Scott said, "but I don't see the strength that many of you in the investment community appear to see.

"We're still seeing a cautious customer who is buying at opening price points and who is timing their expenditures around the receipts of their paychecks, indicating liquidity issues," he said. Opening price points are the absolute cheapest level at which a consumer can buy an item.

Scott said he expects that pattern to continue until the U.S. employment picture improves. Holiday sales are on track to top last year's, but Scott noted that the company is going up against weak comparisons from last year.

Scott hit it absolutely right here. Comparing any figures to last year's figures, or to any of the last three years' numbers are skewed on the face of it. Things have been SO bad for so long, that ANY uptick will look massive, making a mockery of the comparison. But, taken in the context of the last five years, or last ten years, we see the small uptick as a small, encouraging sign and nothing more.

This is not to be construed as a sign of health or vitality.

Basically, it comes under the heading of hitting yourself in the head repeatedly with a ballpeen hammer. It feels soooo good when you stop.


***


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posted by Gotham 11:07 AM
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