Friday, October 17, 2003
Show Us the Jobs, George!
Let's return to the Gotham Notes theme of Context for a moment.0 comments
The White House is waging a full-court press effort to steer the public's focus away from the men behind the curtain, and back onto the glory of their vision.
A major component of this Happy Talk campaign entails pointing to the stock market's consistent rise since March. In essence, they are taking zippo credit for any of the country's slide along the Down side of the economic cycle and all of the credit for its coming back on the Up side of the cycle.
Even the Fed is getting into the act.
But before we rush right out and applaud, let's look at this Context thing.
Despite the chatter coming out of the White House to the effect that Happy Days Are Here Again So You Should Allow Us to Establish One-Party Rule, the Labor Department released their employment numbers last week. So, let's take a look.
The first thing that jumps out at you is the fact that there has been NO correlation between the improvement in the stock market over the last six months and employment. In fact, there has been a total disconnect.
According to the Labor Department:
Unemployment Rate (April 2003) — 6.0%
Unemployment Rate (August 2003) — 6.1%
Over a six-month period, the Unemployment rate actually WENT UP. Not a great deal, mind you, but UP nonetheless at a time it should be going DOWN. During a period which saw the Dow rise 2,000-odd points. Even given the "drag time" concept, this is unseemly.
OK, let's look at it by state. The Labor Dept. includes the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico in their numbers, so I do as well. Scroll down to find your locale.
STATE — March 2003/August 2003
Alaska — 6.8/8.0
Arkansas — 5.0/5.4
Arizona — 5.9/6.1
California — 6.7/6.7
Colorado — 5.7/5.7
Connecticut — 5.2/5.2
District of Columbia — 6.5/7.2
Delaware — 4.1/4.6
Florida — 5.4/5.3
Georgia — 4.6/4.6
Hawaii — 3.7/4.3
Iowa — 4.0/4.5
Idaho — 5.4/5.7
Illinois — 6.6/6.8
Indiana — 4.8/5.2
Kansas — 4.7/4.7
Kentucky — 5.7/5.7
Louisiana — 6.3/7.2
Massachusetts — 5.7/5.8
Maryland — 4.5/4.2
Michigan — 6.7/7.4
Minnesota — 4.4/4.3
Missouri — 4.8/5.6
Mississippi — 6.0/6.3
Montana — 4.2/4.7
North Carolina — 6.0/6.5
North Dakota — 3.7/3.8
Nebraska — 3.8/3.8
New Hampshire — 4.1/4.4
New Jersey — 5.9/5.9
New Mexico — 5.9/6.1
Nevada — 5.5/5.2
New York — 6.0/6.2
Ohio — 6.2/5.8
Oklahoma — 5.1/5.4
Oregon — 7.6/8.0
Pennsylvania — 5.8/5.2
Puerto Rico — 12.2/11.2
Rhode Island — 5.3/5.3
South Carolina — 5.9/6.2
South Dakota — 3.2/3.4
Tennessee — 4.8/5.0
Texas — 6.7/6.6
Utah — 5.7/5.1
Virginia — 4.2/3.7
Vermont — 4.1/4.0
Washington — 7.1/7.5
Wisconsin — 5.5/5.9
West Virginia — 5.7/6.6
Wyoming — 4.1/4.1
Feeling better?
A quick glance shows that while Bush & Co. have been pointing to the markets' rise to prove that things were JUST FINE, only SIX states saw their unemployment percentages drop as much as even a measely 0.3% over six months. Everywhere else stayed the same or GOT WORSE.
The biggest drop was seen in Puerto Rico, with 10,000 jobs added—a full 1.0% improvement. Sounds great. Until you realize that the lower current number includes normal gearing up for the beginning of the regular tourist season, and that even with that the improved number is STILL 11.2% unemployed.
Feel better? I know I do.
Remember the following factors as you process all of the Happy Talk wafting from the White House.
One: Wall St. analysts have been complaining for at least four months that the market has overextended itself once again and has gone back to being overvalued. They claim it cannot possibly keep up the pace of growth it's seen recently—i.e., look out for Bears.
Two: The rotten economy has speeded the process of companies shipping their jobs overseas. That's ideal for making their stock prices improve, and relieves all pressure to start taking on the costs of more wages and benefits. So, as business improves, they only need bring in temps to work on a per-project basis. Life is good.
Three: The only stories that will really count are the ones where you, your family members and your neighbors will be able to talk about the new jobs you've finally gotten. Everything else is just smoke and mirrors.
Do not pay any attention to the men behind the curtain.
Just show us the jobs, George!
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posted by Gotham 3:01 PM
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